{"id":21863,"date":"2024-06-06T07:30:56","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T11:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=21863"},"modified":"2024-06-06T07:30:56","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T11:30:56","slug":"the-dollars-about-to-make-a-big-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-dollars-about-to-make-a-big-move\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dollar\u2019s About to Make a Big Move"},"content":{"rendered":"

This year has so far been quite good for the dollar…<\/p>\n

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is currently up 3.28% year-to-date.<\/p>\n

But it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. Along the way, the dollar has suffered through two periods of significant decline.<\/p>\n

The first was between February 14 and March 8. During this time, DXY declined by 2.49%.<\/p>\n

The second was between April 16 and May 16. This time, DXY declined by 2.29%.<\/p>\n

The first pullback in DXY led to a rally to new yearly highs. After DXY bottomed in March, the dollar went on to rally 4.06%<\/p>\n

So far, DXY has rallied 0.99% after the second pullback that ended on May 16. The big question is whether or not we’ll see another rally to new highs.<\/p>\n

The fundamental catalyst that will shape the dollar’s future will be the next major shift in policy from the Fed.<\/p>\n

Going Up or Down<\/h2>\n

Traders have been poring over economic data to try and figure out when the Fed will signal that it’s time to start lowering interest rates.<\/p>\n

And as I said last month, much of that data has been a mixed bag<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It’s why although the dollar has been steadily rising this year, a lot of the trading has been very messy with big swings in both directions.<\/p>\n

And now, the dollar is at yet another critical juncture.<\/p>\n

It looks like we’ll either get another rally to new yearly highs… or a significant sell-off that will take DXY into negative territory for the year.<\/p>\n

I’ve prepared an updated chart of DXY below so we can be prepared for either scenario.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Image\"<\/p>\n

The key feature of this chart is the parallel channel (blue lines) that’s contained the entirety of this year’s price action.<\/p>\n

Every time we get near the bottom of the channel, the possibility of a trend reversal heightens.<\/p>\n

A strong break below the channel would be an early warning signal that the uptrend in the dollar may now be at an end.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, so long as we stay within the channel, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of further dollar strength.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Free Trading Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you checked out Jeff’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career \u2013 at zero cost to you. Just click here<\/a> to check it out.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Either way, the dollar seems to be on the cusp of another big move – either up or down.<\/p>\n

The smart thing to do right now is simply to wait… and let the market show its hand. If we get a breakdown out of the channel, then the direction of the dollar is likely lower.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, if we see a series of bullish trend continuation setups like bull flags and triangles, then we’ll likely see another new yearly high.<\/p>\n

Happy trading,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Imre Gams
Analyst, Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar is at yet another critical juncture, here\u2019s where it could be headed next\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[76],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-21863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","publication-market-minute","person-imre-gams"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21863\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21863"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=21863"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=21863"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=21863"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stage.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=21863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}